When concerning behaviors emerge, educators need a clear framework to intervene before situations escalate. Threat assessment provides a systematic way to recognize concerning behaviors and risks based on evidence.
These five evidence-based principles can enhance how your school identifies, evaluates, and responds to potential threats. They were derived by analyzing past instances of violence and structured to help you make balanced decisions that protect your learning environment while supporting students who may be struggling.
Principle 1: The Path to Violence
Violence doesn’t happen overnight. Research shows that targeted violence often follows a predictable process with observable stages: grievance, ideation, planning, preparation, breach, and attack.
| Grievance | Think and Plan | Preparation | Breach | Attack |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spurs violent ideation and potential to view violence as what should or must be done | When, how, where Researching methods, targets, past offenders, previous incidents of targeted violence |
Acquire equipment, skills, resources needed for attack, like weapons or gear Practicing with weapons or doing a real or virtual rehearsal Farewell writings, end of life planning, creation of artifacts to claim credit or explain motive |
Circumventing security measures or boundaries at a target location Conducting dry runs, approach behaviors like stalking, or testing security Cyber instructions like identifying security plans, gaining protected information about a target |
Can include preplanned and opportunistic targets Practical and symbolic acts Culmination of a highly personalized quest for justice that may only be fully understandable to the offender |
These types of behaviors are observable and reportable. Your school needs systems where staff can document when students seem more disengaged or demonstrate shifts in behavior. Early intervention during the grievance or ideation stages can alter a student’s trajectory before escalation occurs.
Key action step: Ensure your staff knows the path to violence stages and has simple tools to document concerns early.
Principle 2: Context Matters
Effective threat assessment recognizes that targeted violence stems from interactions between four factors: the individual, the situation, the setting, and the target. No single element tells the complete story.
- Individual factors might include adverse experiences or history of violence
- Situational factors encompass current stressors like bullying, isolation, loss, or family problems
- Setting includes your school’s environment, climate, and culture
- Targets may be a specific person, group, or the institution itself
Considering context prevents both overreaction and underreaction. A student’s angry statement may sound alarming, but when paired with situational stressors and specific targets, the concern changes dramatically. Looking at the whole picture helps leaders and teams respond effectively.
Key action step: Train your team to evaluate behaviors in context, not as isolated incidents.
Principle 3: Focus on Facts, Not Traits
Effective threat assessment relies on documented behaviors and corroborated facts rather than demographic traits or assumptions. Demographics, personality, or “gut feelings” don’t predict violence – patterns of behavior can.
- Document not only what was said, but how it was said and in what context
- Verify reports with multiple sources when possible
- Look for patterns of behavior over time
By grounding assessments in facts, schools build credibility, avoid bias, and ensure decisions are evidence-based.
Key action step: Establish clear protocols for verifying information and ensure every staff member knows how to safely report and document concerns.
Balanced assessment prevents both criminalizing students who make poor choices in expressing frustration and missing genuine risks from students who haven’t made explicit threats.
Principle 4: Implement a Team-Based Approach
No single person has the complete picture of any student. Behavioral threat assessment and management teams are considered best practice because they bring together different perspectives and expertise.
Your team might include administrators, counselors, school psychologists, resource officers, and educators who work closely with the student being assessed. Each member contributes unique insights and observations that create a more comprehensive understanding.
Formalized processes are essential. Teams need clear protocols for information sharing, decision-making, and intervention planning. Essential staff working with a student should share critical information through secure systems that your threat assessment team can access.
External collaboration matters too. Partnerships with local law enforcement, mental health agencies, and community organizations provide additional resources and perspectives. Threat assessment is not an adversarial process. It is about gathering information to support and protect students.
Key action step: Formalize your team, define roles, and rehearse your process so it is consistent across situations.
Principle 5: Assess the Threat Potential
The central question in threat assessment is whether a student poses a threat, not simply whether they’ve made a threat.
Students may make threats for various reasons without intending to follow through: difficulty problem-solving, accumulated stress, attention-seeking, poor communication skills, or imitating behaviors they’ve observed.
Focusing only on statements can lead to overreaction or missing the true danger. Instead, teams should investigate whether the student shows progression along the path to violence and whether they have intent, means, and opportunity to carry it out.
Balanced assessment prevents both criminalizing students who make poor choices in expressing frustration and missing genuine risks from students who haven’t made explicit threats.
Key action step: Guide staff to take every report seriously, even if it doesn’t “sound” serious. The goal is to determine intent and capacity, not just react to words.
Building Safer Schools for Better Learning
Together, these five principles provide the foundation for effective threat assessment.
- Violence follows a path
- Context matters
- Facts over traits
- Team-based approach
- Pose vs. make a threat
When applied, they drive a comprehensive safety framework that protects students while ensuring those in crisis receive the support they need. This balanced approach keeps schools safe while preserving the supportive environments where students can thrive.
Ready to deepen your understanding of these principles and learn how to implement them effectively? Watch our webinar recording, Creating Safer Schools: Preventing Violence and Understanding Threats with Dr. Joseph Ferrito, a licensed psychologist with expertise in forensic psychology as he shares evidence-based insights on threat assessment, risk factors, and whole-school prevention strategies.
